Poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic

The Kyrgyz Republic was one of the poorest of the Soviet republics and suffered severe shocks with the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. It has also been one of the most rapid reformers among Soviet successor states, and has some of the best household survey data. This paper applies probit analysis to 1993 and 1996 household survey data to examine the correlates of poverty during transition to a more market-oriented economy. Poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic is strongly associated with a few geographical, demographic and educational variables. Poverty is highest in rural areas, especially in the south, and households in the capital city are least likely to be poor. Variations in the educational level of the household head are only significant for tertiary education, but college education is the most consistently significant determinant of avoiding poverty in both 1993 and 1996. In contrast to some expectations, simple ethnic effects are not strong; particularly in the south, Kyrgyz households are most likely to be poor but this relationship was weaker in 1996 than in 1993. Demographic variables are also weakly related to poverty, although the evidence of larger households being more likely to be poor is stronger in 1996 than in 1993, with the costs of more children rising. JEL Classifications: O15, O53